A quarterly benchmark for fraud pressure in private real estate lending.
The index tracks confirmed and high-confidence fraud signals across draws, documents, and identity, indexed to 2024 Q1 = 100. It is free to cite, free to chart, and free to download. Attribution: Private Lending Fraud Index, Zack Farris, zackfarris.com.
Composite index, 2024 Q1 → 2026 Q2
Composite of draw, document, and identity sub-indices. Higher = more fraud pressure per dollar originated.
Pattern mix, trailing four quarters
Share of confirmed and high-confidence fraud events by pattern, 2025 Q3 → 2026 Q2.
Index table
| Quarter | Composite | Draw | Document | Identity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q1 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2024 Q2 | 108 | 112 | 104 | 109 |
| 2024 Q3 | 121 | 128 | 113 | 122 |
| 2024 Q4 | 134 | 141 | 124 | 138 |
| 2025 Q1 | 149 | 156 | 138 | 154 |
| 2025 Q2 | 167 | 174 | 152 | 176 |
| 2025 Q3 | 184 | 188 | 168 | 198 |
| 2025 Q4 | 203 | 205 | 184 | 222 |
| 2026 Q1 | 224 | 221 | 203 | 251 |
| 2026 Q2 | 247 | 238 | 224 | 282 |
Methodology
Universe. U.S. private real estate lenders originating business-purpose loans against 1–4 unit residential and small commercial collateral, with a particular focus on rehab and ground-up construction programs that include draws.
Inputs. Anonymized, aggregated fraud signals contributed by a panel of private lenders, fund managers, and verification vendors; cross-checked against confirmed loss events disclosed in court filings, regulatory actions, and lender post-mortems.
Construction. Each quarter we compute the rate of confirmed or high-confidence fraud events per $100M of originations in three categories: draw (photo, invoice, scope), document (statements, payoffs, titles, insurance), and identity (borrower, guarantor, entity). Each sub-index is rebased so 2024 Q1 = 100. The composite is the equal-weighted average of the three sub-indices.
Confidence. v1 is directional, not audit-grade. Sample sizes are small relative to the full market; the panel skews toward lenders investing in verification technology and therefore likely under-represents fraud at lenders without controls.
Update cadence.Quarterly, within 30 days of quarter close. Revisions are flagged in the changelog at the bottom of this page.
License. Data and charts are released under CC BY 4.0. Please cite as: Private Lending Fraud Index, Zack Farris, zackfarris.com/data.
- v1.0 — Initial release. 10 quarters of data, three sub-indices, pattern mix snapshot.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the Private Lending Fraud Index measure?
- It is a quarterly composite of confirmed and high-confidence fraud signals per $100M of originations in U.S. private real estate lending, broken into three sub-indices: draw fraud (photos, invoices, scope), document fraud (statements, payoffs, titles, insurance), and identity fraud (borrower, guarantor, entity). All series are rebased so 2024 Q1 = 100.
- How is the index constructed?
- Each quarter we collect anonymized, aggregated fraud signals from a panel of private lenders, fund managers, and verification vendors, cross-checked against confirmed loss events disclosed in court filings, regulatory actions, and lender post-mortems. Each sub-index is computed independently and then equal-weighted into the composite.
- How often is the index updated?
- Quarterly, within 30 days of quarter close. Revisions are flagged in the changelog on this page and the CSV is republished at the same URL so downstream tools always read the latest version.
- Can journalists and analysts cite this data?
- Yes. The data and charts are released under Creative Commons BY 4.0. Cite as 'Private Lending Fraud Index, Zack Farris, zackfarris.com/data'. For interviews or custom cuts of the data, email press@zackfarris.com.
- Where can I download the raw data?
- A machine-readable CSV is available at zackfarris.com/data.csv. The CSV mirrors the quarterly table on this page and includes the composite index plus the draw, document, and identity sub-indices for every quarter in the series.